Bitcoin Experiment Outperforms Hodling with 300% Higher Profits: Researchers 

Bitcoin Experiment Outperforms Hodling with 300% Higher Profits: Researchers 

In a recent study conducted by a team of academic researchers from the International Hellenic University and Democritus University of Thrace in Greece, the efficiency of Bitcoin trading was rigorously examined through the lens of the “efficient market hypothesis” (EMH). This controversial theory has purportedly led to the development of models showcasing nearly 300% superior performance compared to the traditional hodl strategy in simulated cryptocurrency portfolios. 

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) 

At the core of EMH lies the assertion that an asset’s share price inherently reflects its fair market value, encompassing all relevant market information. If proven true, this theory implies that attempts to outperform the market through timing or intuitive stock selection are inherently futile. EMH proponents advocate for investments in low-cost passive portfolios, steering away from market-timing strategies. 

However, critics of EMH, citing instances such as Warren Buffet’s successful career in beating the market, challenge this perspective. The research team from Greece, focusing exclusively on the Bitcoin market, suggests that EMH can be effectively applied to cryptocurrency trading, providing an alternative to the conventional hodling approach as a means of mitigating market volatility. 


To thoroughly examine this hypothesis, the researchers took a meticulous approach by crafting four distinct artificial intelligence models. These models were carefully trained using diverse datasets, and the researchers subjected them to a series of rigorous training and testing procedures.  

The goal was to identify models that were optimized for both the conventional “beat the market” strategy and the hodling approach. This comprehensive analysis allowed the researchers to gain insights into the effectiveness and performance of each model under different market conditions and investment strategies. 

Results and Implications 

As reported by the research team, the optimal model showcased a remarkable 297% improvement over baseline returns, providing substantial support for the potential efficacy of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the context of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading.  

Nevertheless, it is crucial to highlight that the study relied on historical data and simulated portfolio management. This aspect introduces a notable caveat, prompting inquiries into the practical relevance and applicability of the findings in real-world trading scenarios.  

Hodlnaut’s Liquidation 

In an additional turn of events, it has come to light that Hodlnaut, a cryptocurrency lending platform, is on the brink of liquidation following a sealed court decision by Singapore’s High Court. This decision transpired subsequent to the conclusion of judicial management proceedings. Notably, Ee Meng Yen Angela and Aaron Loh Cheng Lee, erstwhile interim judicial managers, have been designated as the appointed liquidators for this process.  

Hodlnaut encountered a critical juncture in August 2022, marked by the suspension of both deposit and withdrawal functionalities. This decision was accompanied by the withdrawal of its licensing application submitted to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, citing the rationale of adapting to “recent market conditions.” The consequences of this development reverberated among Hodlnaut’s notable creditors, a substantial cohort consisting of 17,000 users. 

Among the prominent entities impacted by Hodlnaut’s predicament are significant players in the financial landscape, including Samtrade Custodian, S.A.M. Fintech, and the Algorand Foundation. These entities, with their substantial stake and involvement, contribute to the complexity of the situation.   

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Jesse Rosenbalm
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Jesse Rosenbalm

Jesse Rosenbalm stands out in the crypto journalism realm, seamlessly blending intricate blockchain concepts with accessible prose. Known for his deep dives and accurate forecasting, Jesse's articles are a must-read for both novices and experts. As crypto trends shift, his insightful writings remain a beacon in the digital currency space.

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